Week 3 NFL DFS Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings and FanDuel
Player models are the cornerstone of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the start of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is only part of the equation: salary, cap, and projected ownership are all factors in which players stand out as the best games every week.
Let’s dive into our models and take a look at a few players with the highest caps, value odds, and projected ownership for the NFL Week 3 slate. We will use Koerner’s model as a basis.
Upper Cap: Lamar Jackson vs. Detroit Lions – $ 7,800 on DraftKings, $ 8,400 on FanDuel
Week 3 gives us the first chance to register Lamar jackson on the main slate. As a dual threat option, Jackson delivers performance at the 75th percentile both in the air and his rushing ability. He will face a last-ranked Detroit Lions defense in the DVOA, surrendering 323 yards to a Green Bay Packers offense in a 35-17 loss in Week 2.
Jackson posted MVP-worthy numbers in a 36-35 Week 2 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs, with 239 and one touchdown, as well as two more touchdowns. By the way, look for Marquise Brown and Marc Andrews to see the most looks, Brown having a strong correlation of 0.46 with Jackson going back to last season. With the game against the Lions currently totaling 50 points, Jackson should be the centerpiece given a high clash, but be careful with the Ravens’ wide receivers over stacking, given Jackson’s rushing tendencies.
Max Value: Justin Fields vs. Cleveland Browns – $ 5,200 on DraftKings, $ 6,500 on FanDuel
rookie quarterback Justin Champs will make his first start in place of the injured Andy dalton. In Week 2, Fields threw for 60 yards on 13 passing attempts, facing a Cincinnati Bengals defense that ranks eighth overall, according to PFF.
Going against the Cleveland Browns as a 7.5-point underdog signals that Fields may have to rely on the Bears receiving corps to keep pace. Darnell mooney and Allen Robinson II led the Bears in target share for two weeks, with 23% looks and should be the preferred stacking options with Fields. The Browns rank as the ninth worst defense, according to PFF and given the reduced salary, and he could easily achieve fantastic relevance with poor performance, especially if the game is closer than expected.
Top Roster: Josh Allen vs. Washington Football Team – $ 7,000 on DraftKings, $ 8,000 on FanDuel
Josh Allen appears to be a popular option for the rosters this week (just behind Lamar), and with the potential of a 75th percentile result every week, he gives the rosters a high floor thanks to his ability to shift the Bills’ offense into the airs and with its ability to precipitate.
Washington is 18th in defensive DVOA, ceding 391 points to the New York Giants in a 30-29 victory in Week 2. a score of +0.49 plus / minus. Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders and Cole beasley are all viable options to stack with Allen, with wide receivers seeing a correlation of 0.48 and 0.22 with wide opposites dating back to last season.
Upper Cap: Derrick Henry vs. Indianapolis Colts – $ 8,600 on DraftKings, $ 9,700 on FanDuel
In week 2, Derrick Henri posted a breakout score, registering 50.7 DraftKings points on a three touchdown and 182 yard performance in a 33-30 victory over the Seattle Seahawks.
With a hefty price tag of $ 8,600, Henry comes up with a projected ownership of 8.6%, but can still hit a 75th percentile result with his big stake ability. Interestingly, Henry has been targeted six times during the week 2, giving an extra dimension to one of the best running backs in the league. Henry faces an Indianapolis Colts defense that ranks 26th in DVOA and should be seen as a spending option. The Titans are a six-point favorite and should rely on Henry to help them run out of time if they are ahead in the fourth quarter.
Best Value: Clyde Edwards-Helaire vs. Los Angeles Chargers – $ 4,800 on DraftKings, $ 6,500 on FanDuel
Price reduced to $ 4,800 on DraftKings, Kansas City Chiefs in reverse Clyde Edwards-Helarie comes at a big discount, probably because of two poor performances to start the season. In the Chief’s 36-35 loss to the Ravens, Helaire ran for 46 yards on 13 carries, leading the team with a 72% carry share. Usually a pass option for Patrick muhammad, Edwards-Helaire was not targeted in week 2.
Week 3 could be an opportunity to “buy”, with the Chiefs facing a 28th-ranked Chargers defense in peak DVOA. However, CEH has a -0.28 correlation with Mahomes, so it’s best to leave out any Chiefs stacks you might have.
Top Roster: Dalvin Cook vs. Seattle Seahawks – $ 8,400 on DraftKings, $ 9,500 on FanDuel
After a dominating performance by Derrick Henry against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 2, Dalvin cook drafts as a popular choice for the running back in the Week 3 game with Seattle. Cook racked up 192 yards and one touchdown to start the season, averaging 21 attempts per game. Cook should also factor in passing play, seeing 10 targets and catching eight passes for 60 yards. With a current game tally of 55 points, Cook should be an easy pick in a Kirk’s cousins stack or part of a Russell wilson report stack, given its versatile role.
Keep an eye on Cook’s status for week 3. While all indications seem to indicate that the star is active, Cook missed training on two consecutive days with an ankle injury.
Upper Cap: Tyreek Hill vs. Los Angeles Chargers – $ 8,400 on DraftKings, $ 8,700 on FanDuel
Some league players are considered match proof, and Tyreek Hill is a. As a privileged target of Patrick muhammad, Hill can undoubtedly hit a cap with his big-game ability. So far this season, Hill has had five targets over 20 yards downhill and is responsible for 30% of the Chiefs’ target share, who directs the receiving body. Despite a poor three-catch, 14-yard performance against the Ravens in Week 2, look for Hill to bounce back against a Chargers defense that ranks 18th in DVOA pass.
Hill has a strong correlation of 0.49 with Mahomes and should be a staple in Mahomes Stacks. Expect tons of passes throughout the game, with the Chargers and Chiefs ranking down in the DVOA pass, signaling Hill as a comeback play with Justin Herbert.
Best Value: Cooper Kupp vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $ 6,800 on DraftKings, $ 7,900 on FanDuel
The Week 3 game between the Los Angeles Rams and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers appears to be a shootout, with a total of 55.5 points, currently the highest on the list. The Rams and Buccaneers are playing at breakneck speed, calling a play every 24.8 seconds, which ties them to 10th in the league. Cooper Kupp established himself as the main target of the quarterback Matthew Stafford, leader in target share with 38%. In a 27-24 Week 2 win over the Indianapolis Colts, Kupp was targeted 11 times, catching nine passes for 163 yards and two touchdowns.
While the Rams face a Buccaneers defense that ranks third among PFF’s best pass cover defenses, Kupp is a viable option based purely on volume.
Top Roster: Chris Godwin vs. Los Angeles Rams – $ 6,000 on DraftKings, $ 7,300 on FanDuel
Across from Cooper Kupp, wide receiver for the Buccaneers Chris Godwin is projected as the highest wide receiver on the list at 22%. With Antonio brown questionable after testing positive for COVID-19, Godwin is expected to have an increased role in the Buccaneers receiving body if Brown steps down. With a 23% target share, Godwin leads the Buccaneers wide receivers and was targeted five times in a 48-25 win over the Atlanta Falcons, capturing four passes for 62 yards and a touchdown.
Like Kupp, Godwin faces a tough defense from the Rams that ranks as the second best pass cover defense according to PFF. However, with the passing trends of Tom brady, Godwin should have enough volume to be relevant to the fantasy.
Upper Cap: Travis Kelce vs. Los Angeles Chargers – $ 8,200 on DraftKings, $ 8,500 on FanDuel
Some can claim at any time Travis Kelce is on the slate, it’s a padlock. Even with a hefty $ 8,200 salary on DraftKings, the Chiefs tight end is a regular part of the receiving corps and will have many goals. In the Week 2 loss to the Ravens, Kelce was targeted eight times, catching seven passes for 109 yards and a touchdown.
Kelce is efficient in the red zone, allowing it to achieve a result at the 75th percentile. Dating back to last season, Kelce has been targeted 20 times in the red zone and has a strong 0.15 correlation with Mahomes. Kelce should be seen as a return option for Justin Herbert’s stacks, resulting in an inferior property setup, with Herbert seeing a third of Mahomes’ proposed property.
Best Value: Tyler Higbee vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $ 4,000 on DraftKings, $ 5,500 on FanDuel
Half the price of Travis Kelce, the tight end of the Rams Tyler higbee gives rosters pay break and a unique play stacking option against the Buccaneers. Higbee is third in target share on the Rams’ receiving body, at 12 percent and has a less than stellar outing against the Indianapolis Colts, capturing a pass for eight yards.
In a high-paced game, Higbee takes the Rams’ red zone play appeal into account, getting glances in the red zone and should benefit from Ram’s friendly play appeal. However, Higbee’s low price makes it a popular choice, forecast at 18.1%.
Top Roster: TJ Hockenson vs. Baltimore Ravens – $ 5,200 on DraftKings, $ 6,300 on FanDuel
With Tyler higbee see the most projected property among the tight ends, TJ Hockenson appears to be the second most popular option, projected for 18% ownership.
In a 35-17 loss to the Green Bay Packers, Hockenson was shot nine times, catching eight passes for 66 yards and a touchdown. This season, the tight end is the preferred target of the quarterback Jared goff, leader in hospitality with a market share of 20%.
Hockenson appears to be the first choice for a return to Lamar Jackson’s lineup. With the Lions currently under 7.5 points, look for Goff to keep his foot on the pedal, with Detroit playing at the fifth fastest pace, calling a play every 25.7 seconds.