MLB DFS: Model Picks, Value Plays and Top Stack for June 9
The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models contain many data points to help you build your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for every player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to build your teams for tournament play. money or small field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB games that stand out in our player models for tonight’s slate.
Choice of bargain odds value
You might be wondering: what is bargain scoring and why should I care?
The bargain rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site compared to others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than on the other, he will have a favorable bargain rating on the site where it is more affordable and a bad bargain rating on the site where it is more expensive. It’s a simple metric, but targeting discounted players is almost always a solid strategy in DFS.
Deal rating is highly correlated to player value, which you can quickly see with our Projected Over/Under forecast metric.
Seeing how Over/Under helps you project how many points a player should score versus what their salary implies they score, that’s good business for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Chad Pinder ($2,500): Outfielder, Oakland Athletics
The A’s will have plenty of opportunities to rack up points against Konnor Pilkington and the Guardians on Thursday. Chad Pinder has been one of the best A producers this season, and he’s projecting himself as a bargain option on tonight’s main roster.
Pinder is the A’s leader in slugging percentage, bringing his mark .399 to 15 RBI and 14 runs scored. The 30-year-old is also the home runs team manager, despite having played just 42 games this season.
Forward metrics from the A’s outfielder argue that more impressive results could be on the horizon. Pinder has a hard-hit rate of 46.4%, which puts him in the top 83rd percentile. Plus, he’s below his expected slugging percentage, which suggests we haven’t seen him reach his full potential yet.
Aside from the right vs. left game, benefiting Pinder, Pilkington also has one of the worst barrel rates in MLB at 10.9%. This bumps up his expected earned run average, leaving Pinder and his teammates with plenty of upside in Game 1 of the series.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Joey Gallo ($2,300): Outfielder, New York Yankees
For years, Joey Gallo was kind of an all-or-nothing hitter. Heading into this season, 59.3% of his hits were extra-base hits, with Gallo consistently ranking as one of the worst hitters at bat. According to projections from THE BAT X, we should expect more of the old tonight against the Twins.
Gallo has been trending higher over the past week, raising his slugging percentage to .412 over the past seven days. The Yankees outfielder homered, making three runs and conceding twice himself.
He will have a chance to improve these stats against Dylan Bundy, which cannot avoid barrels. The 29-year-old has a barrel rate of 11.3%, which puts him in the bottom 12% of MLB pitchers and leads to 1.7 homers per nine innings.
The Yankees are seeking atonement after last night’s 8-1 loss, and Gallo will lead the charge. The two-time All-Star can improve on his already impressive barrel rate by 17.7% and exceed the implied value of his salary of $2,300.
Choice of ceiling projection MLB DFS
Max Fried ($9,500 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
The Braves are looking to extend their seven-game winning streak and they’re doing their best by sending Max fried at the mound.
Fried has been outstanding to start the season. He leads the Braves starting pitchers with 1.01 walks + hits per inning pitched and ranks second with a 2.74 ERA.
The 28-year-old keeps hitters guessing with a five-pitch arsenal, driving a chase rate that puts him in the 95th percentile. Fried turns to his curveball as his primary putting field, earning a 40.7% odor rate. It also generates an odor rate of 29.4% or better with its change and slider.
The Pirates have been a free team the past two days, with 23 strikeouts in two games. Things don’t seem to get much easier against Fried, who is coming off an 8.0 inning shutout in his last start.
Fried leads the ceiling and mid-projections of THE BAT X, and he also does well in the FantasyLabs projections.
Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6,200 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
We return well to the Braves, highlighting Ronald Acuna Jr. as our top option on tonight’s evening slate. Acuna Jr. has been unstoppable lately, posting a 1.292 on-base plus slugging percentage over the past week, including nine hits and three homers in five outings.
Acuna’s success isn’t limited to the past seven days, as he’s been one of the best hitters in the game since returning to action in late April. The two-time All-Star ranks in the 95th percentile or better in hard hit rate, average exit velocity, and barrel rate, which translates to an expected slugging percentage of .578.
Probable initiator of hackers J.T. Brubaker seemed uncomfortable to start the season. The third-year pro is 0-5 with a 4.70 ERA, 8.9% barrel rate and .440 expected slugging percentage.
Acruna Jr. ranks near the top of our median projections and should hit his elite fantasy ceiling against the Pirates.
Best stacking choice of THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the ability to purchase additional items from the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB screenings is THE BAT by Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use its projections alone or create aggregated projections in our player models.
The stack of five top DraftKings from THE BAT using midfield projections belongs to the Guardians. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you have the option to manually build the rest of your team or optimize the rest.
The Guardians turn up the heat in time for the summer, winning eight of their last 11 games. MVP Candidate Jose Ramirez remains the offensive catalyst and is the tentpole to hang your stacks of Guardians on.
Ramirez leads the Majors in RBIs, ranks fourth in slugging percentage and is tied for seventh-longest pitches. He’s run hot in his last 12 games, compiling three homers, nine RBIs and five stolen bases.
Myles Straw and Amed Rosario are projected as the one-two hitters tonight, delivering an elite inside-out hit in front of Ramirez. Straw has a .329 on-base percentage and has crossed the plate 38 times this season. Rosario is second on the team with 48 hits, scoring 22 times.
Josh Naylor and Oscar Gonzalez round out our Guardians stack, and both players were major contributors to Cleveland’s recent recovery. Naylor has a .389 hitting percentage over his last five games, with Gonzalez bursting onto the scene with a .825 on-base plus hitting percentage over his first 12 games.
The confidence of the betting market is high on the Guardians. They enter the contest as -175 favorites, with the total set at 8.5. This is also reflected in our projections, ranking Cleveland as the best stacking option.