Johns Hopkins’ new infectious disease model projects COVID-19 resurgence in 3 months
Right now, 45% of the U.S. population is fully vaccinated, but Johns Hopkins researchers consider these numbers the perfect gap for a COVID-19 resurgence to take hold.
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“The rest of the population is still at risk of infection and death,” said Dr. Shaun Truelove, assistant scientist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
the COVID 19 Scenario Modeling Center came out with four scenarios of what could happen in the coming months if vaccination rates do not increase.
“We have a high vaccination scenario and a low vaccination scenario. Where high vaccination assumes that approximately 86% of the eligible population is vaccinated, the low vaccination scenario is down to 75%. Both of these levels are higher than where we are right now. So we still need progress to get there, ”said Dr Truelove.
Luz Pena: “In your data, we see a drop in the summer. Why do you think there might be a resurgence in the fall?”
Dr Truelove: “It’s a virus that has seasonality, and with seasonality and climate change, we see that in the fall the potential for transmission is higher.”
A key factor behind a potential resurgence is the Delta variant. This is the mutation of the virus responsible for the surge in COVID-19 cases in India. In the United States, this variant is spreading.
Luz Pena: “Do you think the Delta variant could become the predominant variant by the fall? “
Dr Nevan Krogan: “I think the fewer vaccinations with different bags in this country, the more likely it will be. The Delta variant will be the most prevalent virus.”
At UCSF’s Quantitative Biosciences Institute, scientists are closely studying this emerging variant.
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“As a preliminary matter, it appears to also modulate our immune response,” said Dr. Krogan, director of the Quantitative Biosciences Institute at UCSF.
At Johns Hopkins, their modeling shows an increase in transmissibility if people do not get vaccinated quickly.
“The most pessimistic scenario is that a new variant is around 60% more heritable than what we are currently experiencing. This is really based a lot on what is being seen in the UK right now with the Delta variant,” said Dr Truelove.
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