DraftKings NBA DFS Data Insights (1/21): best values, best matches, winning minute
Hello RotoBaller! My name is Jon Anderson and I am the Data Modeling Manager at RotoBaller. I mainly contribute to this website with fantasy baseball analysis, but decided to get into the NBA modeling business this year. Basketball is probably the best sport for modeling and data projection, simply because of the inherent qualities of the game. This makes the DFS version of the game very exploitable to get ahead of our opponents in math and projection.
Anytime there’s a big enough slate on the board during the week, and I have enough time to write it down, I’ll show you the most interesting projections from my NBA data model. This should help you get a first idea of the most usable spots on the slate.
That said, the whole key to playing NBA DFS is adapting to the latest news. Almost every day we see players kicked out within 30 minutes of the slate lockdown, so making the right adjustments after this news remains the most important part of the game here. We’ll do our best to highlight possible places players might be outside to prepare for these, but there’s not much we can do on this post to make up for the news that came out of nowhere at 6:45 p.m. . All that said, let’s go!
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Today’s injury toll is available here.
NBA DFS: best team games
# 1: Clippers vs. Thunder
Oklahoma City leads the league in DraftKings allowed points per game at 245.3 in their six games. They gave up the eighth-highest number of field goal attempts per game and the second-highest number of three-point attempts. Note that they have already faced the Warriors twice, which is probably the main reason for the high number of three-point attempts allowed.. The data model currently has the Clippers screened for 234 DraftKings points (+12.8 over the season average) and 110 actual points scored (+7.1).
Paul George is leading the way for the Clippers in fantasy production with a huge 23% share of team DraftKings points this year, and a 23% share of team points scored. However, it costs up to $ 10,700 tonight, which makes a huge, fantastic performance a little harder to grasp. The model’s favorite Clipper is Luke Kennard ($ 4,400) who we budgeted for a dozen hits, 4.5 three-point attempts, and 26.6 DraftKings points, which would give a pay value multiplier of 6.05. Eric Bledsoe (26.1, 5.6x) is the only remaining clipper with a projected value of 5.5x at this point. You can certainly play Paul George for the gigantic cap he has, but Kennard and Bledsoe are in the best position to take advantage of the fast-paced showdown here.
# 2 Nuggets vs. Grizzlies
Memphis ranks third in most DraftKings points allowed per game, dropping 242.1 per game. They’ve given up the most points and assists in the league, which makes it seem like a better place for the guards rather than the big men (they’ve given up the fourth fewest rebounds per game). Those data points could change quickly as we’re only a handful of games into the season so don’t take it too seriously. The Nuggets’ lead man is Nikola Jokic, a center. However, Jokic is no ordinary cross as he has a ridiculous 23% share of his team’s assists to lead them. He has a 26% share of their DraftKings points, which makes him almost a one-man show. It is very well placed although very expensive ($ 11,000). The next guy to consider would be Will Barton ($ 5,700), although the model’s projection on him isn’t fantastic (27.6 points for a 4.8 times value). For the year, Barton has averaged 34.1 DraftKings points per 36 minutes played, so if he can play a handful of extra minutes (he’s averaging 31) there, he could really beat the model’s projections here. . Other notable names would be Michael Porter and Nah’Shon Hyland, but I would be more inclined to go to Jokic or Barton.
# 3 Timberwolves versus magic
Orlando is fifth in the league in DraftKings allowed points per game at 237.8. They are fourth in the league in points allowed and sixth in assists allowed while being quite good in rebounds allowed (fifth under in the league) per game. The T’Wolves guards are projecting themselves well here, although their main guard Anthony Edwards has seen his price hit a high of $ 8,200 for this spot. D’Angelo Russell may be the best bet here as he has snatched at least 14 shooting attempts in every game this year, but he’s been pretty cold on the pitch shooting just 38%. Eventually it’s going to happen, and if it starts tonight, he’s able to really crush that $ 7600 price tag.
NBA DFS: cold shooters
One thing I want to check on every roster is what players have shot the field the least in the last few games. The reason for this is that shooting percentages on short samples of data are quite a random exercise, and we should not take into account being “hot” or “cold” when making projections. However, the pricing algorithm takes into account how “hot” or “cold” a player is recently, giving us the ability to buy few players who just haven’t shot in recent times and which therefore have a fantastic below-average score. Let’s take a look at this for today.
Keldon Johnson, San Antonio Spurs
Johnson is just 11 of 37 points in his last three games (29.7%), 15 points below his start-of-season average of 44.7%. He’s made 13, 14, and 10 shooting attempts in those last three, so he hits his shots up there. We haven’t seen a price drop for him, in fact tonight’s $ 5,700 is the highest price for him of the year, but he would most likely be even more expensive tonight if the hits were fallen for him recently.
Eric Bledsoe, Los Angeles Clippers
Bledsoe reappears here! He is only 5/21 off the pitch (23.8%) over his last three, 13.7 points below his season average. His price has dropped $ 1,000 since his last game to $ 4,700. For the year, he shoots an unbearable 19% out of three. It seems like a good place for Bledsoe to bounce back, although he’s averaging under 27 minutes per game his year as well, which is a bit of a problem for us.
Jaren Jackson, Memphis Grizzly
The big man is only shooting 30% from the field this year and has only made 11 of his 41 shots in his last three games. The price fell to a season low of $ 5,400 tonight, making Jackson a great low buy.
Others (here I list the name of the player with his FG% over the last three matches): Kevin Love (28.6% on 28 shots), Justin Holiday (29% on 31 shots), Michael Porter (29.5% on 44 shots), De’Anthony Melton (30.0% on 30 shots), LaMelo Ball (31.2% on 48 shots), Jalen Suggs (31.6% on 38 shots).
NBA DFS: Minute Winners
This section will just be a ranking of the players who are expected to play the most minutes today above their season average.
Scottie Barnes finds himself uncertain for tonight’s game, which reinforces the projection of Chris Boucher and Dalano Banton. Patrick Williams is also expected to be missing for Chicago, increasing Javonte Green’s minutes to 25. There will be changes to this throughout the day, and I will be updating this board with a script throughout the day, so come back regularly!
NBA DFS: the best values
Here I will show the top 25 players projected in terms of salary value.
This chart should also be refreshed throughout the day as we react to breaking news, so keep an eye on it.
That will be all for today, thanks for stopping by!
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